The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest signal of interannual change of short-term climate, and it has an important impact on global short-term climate change. Although ENSO occurs in the tropical Pacific region, its effects are felt world⁃wide. For example, during the El Niño event, the Panama region is prone to drought, which will have a significant impact on shipping on the Panama Canal. Recent reports show that the Panama Canal region has been affected by drought since the spring of 2023, resulting in an abnormally low water level in the canal and the worst blockage in nearly 8 years. In view of this extreme phenomenon, the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is used to analyze the drought conditions in the Panama Canal region, and the
significance of the cumulative effect of drought on different time scales is explored. Furthermore, from the perspective of the physical effects of ENSO (represented by Niño3 index) events on precipitation and evaporation in the Panama Canal region, this study analyzes the causes of drought in the Panama Canal region. According to the current ENSO prediction started from October 2023, it is predicted that the drought in the Panama Canal region will continue and further intensify in the following six months, which is of great significance for the region to cope with the future drought situation.
